FIFA World Cup 2026USA · Canada · Mexico48 teams · 104 matches

THE WORLDCUP, PREDICTED.

Every match. Every minute. Every probability — modelled in real time by TikaML Core, the engine that called 60% of last season's match outcomes.

Latest calls · gradedView all
Bet simulator · TikaML
Backs the model's pick every game at a fixed % of the bankroll.
Stake per game5.0%
$1,000
+0.0%
0 bets · 0% hit · 0 games graded
Max drawdown 0%
Scroll to explore
FIFA WORLD CUP 2026USA · CANADA · MEXICO104 MATCHES48 TEAMS12 GROUPS16 HOST CITIESKICKOFF · 11 JUNE 2026POWERED BY TIKAML COREFIFA WORLD CUP 2026USA · CANADA · MEXICO104 MATCHES48 TEAMS12 GROUPS16 HOST CITIESKICKOFF · 11 JUNE 2026POWERED BY TIKAML CORE
Prediction engine · TikaML Core

A model that watches
every minute.

TikaML doesn't just predict the result — it predicts the path. Pre-match, half-time, the 75th minute. As the game state shifts, the probabilities shift with it.

Multi-model ensemble
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson, xG-adjusted goal rates and team strength priors combine into one calibrated probability per match.
Re-predicts every minute
From kickoff to full-time the model re-scores live, folding the evolving game state — score, red cards, time remaining — back into the odds.
Scored against results
Every prediction since launch is stored and graded against the actual outcome — 8,400+ matches across Europe's top five leagues.
Loading model output…
Championship forecast

Who lifts
the trophy?

Monte-Carlo simulation of the full tournament. Top-12 contenders by current model probability — re-run as the draw and form evolve.

Last update
Sims run
Methodology
Group stage · 48 teams · 12 groups

Every group,
scored.

32 teams advance to the round-of-32 — the top two from each group plus the eight best third-place finishers. Bars show each team's simulated probability of advancing.

Backtest · top-5 leagues · graded vs result

The receipts are
public.

We don't grade ourselves — the data does. Every prediction is stored, scored against the actual result and surfaced in the dashboard. Here's the rolling 12-month summary.

Result accuracy
0.0%
vs 49.7% pre-match baseline
Over / Under 2.5
0.0%
goals market accuracy
Predictions scored
0
graded against the result
Leagues covered
0
Europe's top five
Accuracy by match minute
Sharper every minute the game runs.
TikaML Core
Pre-match baseline
50%55%60%65%70%0'30'60'90'105'Pre-match baseline 49.7%0' · 50.8%15' · 58.1%30' · 56.3%45' · 58.3%60' · 60.8%75' · 67.2%90' · 70.1%105' · 66.0%66.0%
Methodology · How TikaML thinks

Ten signals.
One probability.

Each fixture starts as a set of weighted feature streams. A Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson core, anchored by Elo strength priors, turns them into a calibrated score matrix you can actually act on.

FEATURE STREAMS
Expected goals (xG)
18%
Recent form
14%
Home advantage
14%
Goal-rate priors
11%
Live game state
13%
Head-to-head
8%
Tournament stage
7%
Rest & schedule
6%
Travel & venue
5%
Squad strength
4%
TikaML Core
Dixon-Coles · Elo
CALIBRATED OUTPUT
Win probability
0%
Draw probability
0%
Loss probability
0%
Most likely score
2 : 1
Expected goals
2.8
Confidence
High
Over 2.5
61%
01
Ingest
Opta match & event feeds, normalised per fixture
02
Featurise
xG, goal rates, form, rest, home edge, stage
03
Ensemble
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson + Elo priors
04
Calibrate
Continuously re-scored against actual results
Get the edge

Predict
everything.

Open the dashboard and track the model's prediction for every World Cup match — group stage to final, re-scored minute by minute.

Free to explore
All 104 matches covered
Public backtest